The sino-us dispute for world hegemony according to extrapolations from Ray Cline’s model

Abstract

In view of the increasing intensification of the Sino-American rivalry for leadership in the international system, this text analyzes the power of two prominent contemporary powers—the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China—according to the model conceived by Ray Cline (1970), duly adapted with extrapolations. Its purpose is to outline a possible final scenario of this rivalry, taking as the central object of research the competition between two prominent States in the international system for global hegemonic power. Methodologically, it employs the comparative-deductive model, with both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Based on objective data applied to Cline’s equation, it also uses subjective analyses to deduce the current reality and a future scenario, reapplying numerical data to the adjusted model. For this purpose, it employs the formula of perceptible power developed by Cline, with the necessary modifications, in order to avoid anachronism. It is grounded in bibliographic sources on the theory of power and Cline’s equation, as well as statistical data collected from the hemerography. The study concludes, based on the numerical results obtained and the analyses conducted, that there is a relative US advantage over its rival, especially given the Chinese governance pattern, which hinders the State’s capacity to meet social aspirations and, consequently, undermines the perception that China may become a hegemonic power.