Pregnant Blindness in Intelligence. One case from History
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Abstract
The discipline of intelligence analysis has evolved in recent decades in the light of technological progress and the development of other areas of knowledge. Psychology, with contributions from cognitive psychology, has raised the issue of the pregnancy. Colonel Christian Pinto Sampaio (Brazilian Army) applied these concepts into the performance of the intelligence analyst, with very interesting results. Taking his work as a starting point, we use his theoretical framework to study the case of the Yom Kippur War. The work of Colonel Pinto Sampaio is a valuable contribution to the clarification of the basic intelligence’s problems, and its consideration by those responsible for the management of intelligence systems can provide effective solutions to an important part of this problem. Finally, we must continue to explore the psychology of the intelligence analyst and the operation of these organizations to ensure that decision-makers have better quality information to do their jobs. Nevertheless, it would also be appropriate that this type of academic research be distributed and analyzed by the analysts themselves and become part of their training plan.
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