The future of southern Africa: consequences of the expansion of regional borders and bipolarity
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Abstract
The Southern Africa region seems to differ from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa due to the advanced process of state-building of some countries in the region and the existence of historical interstate rivalries. In this context, this study evaluates the Regional Security Complex (RSC) in Southern Africa over the last decade and contradicts the characterization made by Buzan and Weaver (2003). It is argued that the Southern Africa RSC includes the countries of the Great Lakes region of Central Africa and is characterized, in the post-Cold War period, by an emerging bipolarity. Based on these findings, one questions: based on the theory of international change of Robert Gilpin, what are the possible trends of change or continuity in the Southern Africa regional system in the light of the changes of the last decade? According to the Gilpin (1981), the possibility of changing the order of a system may occur in a revolutionary or incremental way. In the specific case of southern Africa we consider that such possibilities are directly related to the increase of the possibility of conflict arising from the recent expansion of the system and, mostly, the interests of the two regional powers (South Africa and Angola) in transforming or maintaining the status quo.
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